User blog comment:Marc Reuben Cuento/PROBABILITY AND DECKBUILDING PART ONE/@comment-4292163-20140327133657

Your numbers seem way off. Are you really telling me that if 25-27 of the 50 cards in my deck (not counting flag/buddy) are monsters, almost half the deck, I'm not going to get any monsters in my opening hand for almost 40% of my games? I should be drawing an average of 3 monsters per opening hand (25/50 * 6 = 3), yet I'm not getting any monsters in half my games? Using an online hypergeometric calculator, I got the following:

Late-Game 15 / 9 / 3

Chance of drawing at least one Size 1 in your opening hand: 35% 90%

Chance of drawing at least one Size 2 in your opening hand: 21% 72%

Chance of drawing at least one Size 3 in your opening hand: 7% 32%

Chance of drawing at least one monster of any size in your opening hand: 63% 99%

Early-Game 16/ 9 / 0

Chance of drawing at least one Size 1 in your opening hand: 37% 92%

Chance of drawing at least one Size 2 in your opening hand: 21% 72%

Chance of drawing at least one monster of any size in your opening hand: 58% 99%